Information Markets on Romney Running Mate Pick: Meh

With Mitt Romney's announcement of Paul Ryan as his running mate for the upcoming election, the information market has answered with an emphatic "whatever".  As of Thursday, Romney's predicted chance to win the upcoming election had gone as low as 38.0%, its lowest since May 22nd.  After Romney's announcement this morning that Wisconsin State Rep Paul Ryan would be his running mate, his win percentage has increased to 39.6% (an increase of .8% on the day).  While it is doubtful the Romney campaign missed out on a home run, it at least avoided a Palin-esque disaster.

Edit: Since I posted this, Romney's .8% gain had swung into the negative for the day.

Link to Intrade for stat geeks:
Closing Prices chart - Mitt Romney to be elected President in 2012

Let's Get It On!

I've been off the blog now for *looks at watch* three and a half months. Ouch. With Summer approaching and more time to kill, I thought I'd put down a couple thoughts on today's news to get back in the swing.

The Prez finally came down on the side for same-sex marriage today. Not that he wanted to politically, but perhaps what he had long wanted to do personally [fact check needed]. His hand was forced by the vote reinforcing same-sex union bans in North Carolina. The vote showed that the topic once again would play a role in a presidential campaign. With the conservative vote obviously on the side against and the topic at the forefront, the frequency and directness of questions was only going to increase. You can't not pick a side on such an important issue in an election year. We all knew this was the side that The Office would come down on; the other side was just never compatible with Democratic party ideals.

I have been following the news all day and the way it has played out has been pretty sweet. The day began with the reports on the outcome of the vote in NC. Disappointing for sure, but a victory for the right? Certainly not in the long-term. The practice of restricting one group's rights has quite the tradition down there but things eventually move forward, if slowly. Later on, in an obviously hastily called interview, The Prez made his announcement (finally). Did he just make up his mind on it that morning?  It feels like it could have been more definite but given the timing, it looks like a signal that this new campaign is fully prepared to defend the rights of same-sex couples from Mitt Romney and other social conservatives and also feels like a long awaited step towards inevitable progress. To end the news day, Romney told reporters that he is still against same-sex unions just in case we weren't clear on that. Romney's reaffirmation along with his taking credit for the auto-bailout are definitely starting his campaign out on a kind of "me too!" tone.

Coincidentally while I was writing this I got an email from POTUS on the same topic.  It included a link to stand up in support with him. Which is here: Stand up with The Prez!

Feckless in Florida

I was listening to NPR on the way home from work today and they were discussing the GOP primary in Florida. Skip ahead to 38:10 and listen to the gem comment from one caller.
 

Caller: "...I've always voted Republican. And I'm going to stick with Rick Santorum because I believe he is the one that's got the cleanest slate. He doesn't have all the baggage that Romney has with his IRS issues and that um, Gingrich has with his wife issues. So I think uh, I think it's safe to say that Santorum would have the least ammunition to uh, to go against with Obama. Obama would probably have not much to fire at him. So uh, I am going to go safe and go Santorum."

I mean, let's keep this in perspective, this is just some guy that happened to get his call answered but I really feel that many, many conservatives (to be as least judgmental as possible) share at least one of these sentiments. Let me count the fail:

1. Total allegiance to the republican party.  OK, I give a marginal pass and an "Agree to Disagree" on this.
2. Voting for the least dirtied candidate.  Santorum only seems so safe to this guy because he hasn't drawn any attention from the others.  It's not like he doesn't have any skeletons, which I'll get back to in #4.
3. Complete confusion on the actual issues.  Romney's IRS issues?  If making a ton of money and paying a low (legal) tax rate on it were IRS issues, I'd like to shoulder some of that burden. Come on, Guy!
4. Complete ignorance of the actual issues.  Maybe it's selective memory, illiteracy or something else but Santorum has got some really shady stuff in his past regarding dead babies.  Maybe I am being hypocritical but I really don't care enough to find out exactly what the facts are.
5. Going "safe".  Yawn. And so on.