Final Breakdown: Big Ten Scenarios and Tournament Seeding

With one day of games remaining among the B1G contenders, the possibilities are starting to dwindle.  On Monday and Wednesday, I had looked at the eight most likely scenarios and the resulting conference tournament seedings.  Now with four games remaining between the front-runners, I give you the four scenarios based on the Illinois-Ohio State game and the Indiana-Michigan game assuming that Michigan State and Wisconsin hold serve against Northwestern and Penn State respectively.  Within each scenario, I show what will happen if Michigan State OR Wisconsin lose their respective game.  In the unlikely event that BOTH teams lose their games, the seedings would certainly shuffle but Wisconsin would remain outside of the top four seeds.

Sunday's Games:

12:00 UW @ PSU
12:30 UI @ OSU
4:00 IU @ UM
6:00 NU @ MSU

Scenarios:

A) Ohio State, Michigan win

1. IU
2. OSU
3. UM
4. MSU
5. UW

If MSU loses in this scenario: no seeding change but MSU loses share of conference title
If Wisconsin loses in this scenario: no change

B) Ohio State, Indiana win

1. IU
2. OSU
3. MSU
4. UW
5. UM

If MSU loses in this scenario: no change 
If Wisconsin loses in this scenario: UM gets 4-seed, UW gets 5-seed

C) Illinois, Indiana win

1. IU
2. MSU
3. UW
4. OSU
5. UM

If MSU loses in this scenario: OSU gets 3-seed, UW gets 4-seed 
If Wisconsin loses in this scenario: OSU gets 3-seed, UM gets 4-seed, UW gets 5-seed

D) Illinois, Michigan win

1. IU
2. UM
3. MSU
4. UW
5. OSU

If MSU loses in this scenario: OSU gets 4-seed, UW gets 5seed, MSU loses share of conference title
If Wisconsin loses in this scenario: OSU gets 4-seed, UW gets 5-seed

Note: Green Bolding denotes a share of the conference championship